The economy is recovering, consumer confidence is rebounding and Obama just snagged the Nobel Peace Prize. Good times. Not so fast, says Nomura Securities International global chief economist Paul Sheard. U.S. and European economies are still quite “vulnerable,” he warns. His big worry is something that few economists these days are talking about: the risk of outright deflation. Deflation, of course, occurs when the inflation rate goes negative, making it harder for central banks to stabilize an economy, because as Sheard explains, it’s harder to start a fire then to tamp one down. Read the rest of this entry »